When the Chicago Bears head to Washington Commanders for Monday Night Football, the betting world lights up like a stadium after a touchdown.
The clash is set for Monday, October 13, 2025, at 8:15 p.m. ET in Northwest Stadium, Landover, Maryland. ABC will carry the action nationwide, and every line on the board points to a Washington edge.
According to BetMGM, the Commanders are -210 favorites on the moneyline, while the Bears sit at +170. The spread sits at Washington -4 (BetMGM) or -5.5 (Fox Sports), with over/under hovering around 50 points. ESPN’s model gives Washington a 64.5% win probability, leaving the Bears with just over a third chance, and a tiny sliver for a tie.
Betting Landscape Overview
Oddsmakers aren’t shy about pricing Washington as the stronger side. Fox Sports lists a -5.5 spread at -110 on both sides and a total of 49.5 points (over -115, under -105). Meanwhile, Bookies.com advises bettors to back the Commanders to cover the spread.
Contrarian voices exist, though. Windy City Gridiron’s analyst – identified only as Gooch – predicts a 34‑24 win for Chicago, arguing that “all the stats say Washington will be able to run all over the Bears.” (The quote mistakenly mentions New Orleans Saints coach Dennis Allen, a clear typo.) Dimers.com and Sportsnaut both see Washington prevailing by narrow margins (27‑23 and 28‑24 respectively), while Fox Sports goes bold with a 32‑18 blowout.
What’s consistent across the board is the expectation of a high‑scoring affair. Projected totals range from the low‑40s to the mid‑50s, reflecting the offensive firepower of two rookie quarterbacks.
Team Form and Recent Performance
Chicago arrives fresh from a Week 5 bye, a double‑edged sword. The rest gives coaches extra film time, but it can also stall a team's rhythm. The Bears are 2‑2, having split their early games. Their defense, still young, has shown vulnerability against the run – a weakness Washington hopes to exploit.
Washington, meanwhile, is 3‑2 and coming off a hard‑fought win. They’ve played six straight weeks, which can breed fatigue but also keeps the unit in sync. Their rushing attack has averaged 124 yards per game, a statistic that could tilt the balance.
Quarterback Duel: Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels
Both offenses hinge on their young signal‑callers. Williams, the Bears’ first‑overall pick, blends arm talent with mobility. He’s posted a 73% completion rate so far, throwing for 1,112 yards and 7 touchdowns. Daniels, Washington’s former seventh‑round steal, has surprised with a 68% completion rate, 1,020 yards and 6 TDs, while also adding 340 rushing yards.
Analysts expect a classic “gunslinger vs. dual‑threat” matchup. If Williams can exploit mismatches in the secondary, Chicago could stay in the game despite a run‑heavy Commanders attack. Conversely, Daniels’ ability to extend plays may keep the Bears’ defense off‑balance, especially if Washington leans on its ground game to open up play‑action passes.
Expert Predictions and Statistical Models
Beyond the betting lines, several forecasting engines have weighed in. ESPN’s proprietary model gives Washington a 64.5% win probability, translating to roughly a 5‑to‑1 edge over Chicago. eDraft’s “Vegas” projection pins the Commanders at 27 points, while the Bears are forecast at 20.
In a surprising twist, Jeremy Cluff of AZCentral (email: [email protected], X: @Jeremy_Cluff) reported that “the spread consensus shows 0 % of predictors backing either side,” a statement that conflicts with the clear Washington favoritism seen elsewhere. Cluff’s note highlights how quickly the betting market can shift as new information – injuries, weather, or late‑night press conferences – rolls in.
Overall, the geometric mean of the top five prediction services leans toward a Washington win by three to seven points, reinforcing the notion that the Commanders are the team to beat.
What the Game Means for Playoff Hopes
If Washington pulls off a win, they improve to 4‑2 and solidify a claim to the NFC East. A loss would drop them to 3‑3, making a division title a tighter race. Chicago, on the other hand, needs a victory to climb back to .500 and keep their playoff window open. A loss would push them to 2‑3, forcing them into a must‑win scenario for the rest of the season.
Beyond the standings, the outcome could set the tone for each rookie quarterback’s confidence. A strong performance from Williams in a loss could still be a positive indicator for Chicago’s long‑term plan, while a bounce‑back from Daniels after a loss would cement his status as a clutch player.
Key Facts
- Date & Time: Monday, Oct 13 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
- Broadcast: ABC (national)
- BetMGM Line: Washington -4, Moneyline –210 / +170
- Fox Sports Line: Washington -5.5, Total 49.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this matchup affect each team’s playoff chances?
A Washington win lifts the Commanders to 4‑2, putting them near the top of the NFC East and within striking distance of a wild‑card spot. Chicago, sitting at 2‑2, needs a victory to stay at .500; a loss drops them to 2‑3 and turns the rest of the season into a must‑win sprint.
Which quarterback has the edge in this game?
Both are promising rookies: Caleb Williams boasts a higher completion rate and more passing yards, while Jayden Daniels adds a strong rushing component. The edge may come down to who can better exploit the opponent’s defensive weaknesses – the Bears against the run or the Commanders against the secondary.
Why do some analysts predict a Bears win despite the odds?
Contrarian analysts like Windy City Gridiron argue that Washington’s reliance on the run could be neutralized by Chicago’s secondary and that a rested Bears defense may rebound after the bye week. They also point to turnover margins in previous games that could swing a close contest.
What are the most likely scoring totals for this game?
Betting lines suggest a total around 50 points. Forecasts range from a low‑40s shootout to a high‑50s barn‑burner. Given both teams’ offensive focus and rookie quarterback play, a final combined score between 46 and 52 points seems plausible.
Where can fans watch the game live?
The matchup will be broadcast nationally on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET. Streamers can also catch the game via the ABC app, Hulu Live, or any provider that carries the network.
